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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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