Daily Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The typical number of everyday homicides each month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh government data. However, public safety specialists have cautioned that homicide figures may not indicate better countrywide stability.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen over these past months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the lowest figure of murders were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than the US. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an apparently steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

However, security analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide data to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for assessing the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to correctly identify and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily killings was also problematic because it could mask periods when there were especially high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average renders surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

But despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the country to voice their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to build a picture of improvement. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.